To answer the actual question, once your waiver is granted (and I assume it will be with 2004 convictions) you will probably be fine to cross. Especially for Disney, which shows where you are staying, and when you are coming back. I doubt going to Disney makes Homeland Security suspect "maybe they are going to stay"
There have been exceptions, but with travel being reduced 60-75%, I assume less people are crossing even with waivers, (clients have told me this, but that is anecdotal) so therefore less chance of someone being denied, even with a waiver.
I have heard from clients that they are being put through secondary more often, and having devices checked more. Again, anecdotal. I have had a couple of client denied, but they were "on the surface" more likely to be suspicious because they had circumstances (worked online, dancers, suspicion of prostitution) so they are not the same as "we are going to Disney".
So I think you SHOULD be fine. And February is likely the month you will get it approximately of course.