I just wrote a couple of answers in other topics, but this is a general observation about the waivers that are NOT approved.
One of the results of seeing a lot of waivers at the airport that I did NOT apply for, but still able to stay in contact with the applicant is that I have seen a LOT of waivers rejected in the past 3 years. The people will come and see me to ask if an Appeal is warranted.
In some cases, I strongly advised them not to hand the waivers in, because of shoddy work or other factors that I thought would lead to the waiver being rejected, but they handed it in anyways.
My background is actually in English. I was an English major in University. (Jazzsax1 has just confirmed every stereotype of my left wing existence in his own mind. But no I did not wear a beret.)
The reason I mention this is because I have always had a background in using words, interpreting words, and coupled with a lifetime of doing pardons and waivers and pardon appeals and waiver appeals, I can "see" what a rejection letter is "telling me".
The general perception is that Homeland Security weighs all these factors and comes to some logical conclusion and then explains it in its rejection letter. In the past couple of years this has changed in a number of cases.
Its become clear that Homeland Security in many case decides "no", and THEN justifies why. And I mean in the majority of cases now.
I have done a couple of appeals recently where the people actually were GRANTED a waiver, for a year, then re-applied, and THEN were turned down. In both cases the client basically repeated what got them the first waiver and both clients were very articulate and the waivers were decent. But in both cases the offences were non-violent but serious, and the letters claimed they should have never been granted the earlier waivers.
They then went on to build the case using arguments about rehabilitation, but these were weak because in fact both occurrences were one time unique events.
How they MADE their case was by jacking up the argument that even probation and things like "weapons bans" had to be added on to the time served and therefore the offences were too "recent".
To anyone who uses words and language as tools, its a desperate attempt to justify a "I don't think this guy should have been given a waiver".
If you have an offence that looks "icky". Or seems like a big deal. Don't depend on common sense to prevail, or that a long period of time elapsing will mean you get a waiver. Sometimes someone decides "no" and then makes their case around that decision. Its clear it happens in many of the rejections.
I want to emphasize this is some insight I have based on reading over 100 rejections in the last 2 years, and not some connection I have with Homeland Security. I also don't want this to seem like a sales pitch. Many of these waivers I would have discouraged even doing in the first place. In one of the cases I did the appeal, but not the waiver, but the client is a former US Attorney, so very articulate and the waiver was pretty decent. He even got help on it.
I bring this up partially because when I saw the debate on "voyeurism" people are talking as if "technically" he should get a waiver. Guaranteed he would NOT. He plead GUILTY (that's the only way to get a conditional discharge) and no matter how we "massage" the facts, the offence is going to sound a bit 'icky'. That's not a shot at the person who did the offence. But I think I can accurately look at something and KNOW what they are going to say "yes" to, and what they are going to probably say "no" to.
If @Javier applies for a waiver BEFORE 5 years, I give him little chance of success. Worse, he has now handed this record to Homeland Security on a platter. Wait three years, destroy the records, and then move on.